Per StatsCan, Canada's GDP rose 0.4 percent in October, down from the 0.8 percent gain posted in September Sixteen of the twenty industrial sectors expanded in the month, with the best results seen in service producing sectors, as goods production only rose 0.1 percent. The increase beat expectations, with the analysts' consensus looking for a 0.3 percent gain and StatsCan's own preliminary estimate calling for 0.2 percent. Real GDP is still about 4 percent below its pre-pandemic (i.e. February) level.
StatsCan has also provided an initial estimate for growth in November. It looks for a further gain of 0.4 percent. Given the steady reimposition of restrictions and lockdowns as the month progressed, this seems surprisingly optimistic. However, it is now safe to say that, with the strong "handoff" from Q3 to Q4 provided by the September result, and the apparent continuation of growth for at least the first two months of the current quarter, the economy will post a positive GDP result for the quarter as a whole.
The first quarter of 2021 will be a different story. December seems certain to post a flat result at best, and the tightest restrictions and lockdowns since April will be in place across large tracts of the country throughout January, if not longer. The rollout of vaccines looks likely to be slower than in many other countries, including the United States, thanks in large measure to the lack of any facilities for producing them domestically. Q1 is more than likely to see a renewed fall in GDP, though much less steep than that seen a year ago, with a gradual return to more sustainable growth by about mid-year.
No comments:
Post a Comment