Wednesday 13 November 2019

Meanwhile, across town....

All the attention in Washington DC today is on the start of the House impeachment hearings, which are monopolizing the airwaves, even here in Canada.  Fed Governor Jerome Powell's testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress will hardly get a look-in, which is a pity, as he has some important things to say.  

The Fed likes what it see in the economy, both currently and for the near future:

The U.S. economy is now in the 11th year of this expansion, and the baseline outlook remains favorable.  

And:

Looking ahead, my colleagues and I see a sustained expansion of economic activity, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective as most likely. This favorable baseline partly reflects the policy adjustments that we have made to provide support for the economy.

The testimony goes on to note the continuing risks to the US expansion posed by slower growth abroad and (euphemistically, put, this!) "trade developments".  The Fed will be monitoring these risks, but overall, Powell's comments strongly suggest that the mini easing cycle the Fed has undertaken this year is at an end, barring an unforeseen deterioration in the outlook. .  

Powell also has a few more general observations on monetary policy......

....the current low interest rate environment may limit the ability of monetary policy to support the economy.

And on fiscal policy:

.....the federal budget is on an unsustainable path, with high and rising debt: Over time, this outlook could restrain fiscal policymakers' willingness or ability to support economic activity during a downturn.

Neither of these statements is really disputable, but neither will be welcomed by Donald Trump. He has regularly castigated Powell and the FOMC for their failure to reduce interest rates further and faster, and with the election now less than a year away, Trump would not wish to have voters drawing any connection between his ill-advised tax cuts for the wealthy and the soaring budget deficit. On a slow news day, Powell's comments might have triggered a Twitter tirade from the Oval Office, but today, maybe Trump has more important things to think about. 

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