Tuesday, 1 November 2016

"Outsized"??

The big event for the Canadian economy today will be Finance Minister Bill Morneau's fall fiscal update, in which he is widely expected to put more flesh on the bones of the government's infrastructure plans.  He will probably also admit that the budget deficit is likely to be higher than previously forecast because the economy is growing so slowly.  More on this tomorrow.

Speaking of growth, however, today saw the release of August GDP data.  The economy grew 0.2 percent in the month, but July's growth was revised down to 0.4 percent from the 0.5 percent first reported.  You can see the details here, but think about this:  a "rebound" on this scale, after the dismal (albeit wildfire-related) numbers posted back in the spring has analysts dipping into the thesaurus and coming up with the adjective "outsized".  It's a sign of how accustomed we have become, in the years since the financial crisis, to seeing the economy perpetually teetering on the brink of recession.

Can Bill Morneau do anything about that?  We'll find out later today.  

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