Ignore the headline!

Another month, another confusing employment report from Statistics Canada.

The agency reported today  that the economy added 44,000 jobs in October, far higher than the 15,000 consensus expectation.  But......

• All of the jobs added in the month were part-time -- in fact, part-time employment rose more than 67,000 in the month, offset by a 23,000 decline in full-time jobs. 

• The preponderance of part-time jobs in October reflects a longer term pattern: over the past year, the economy has added 124,000 part-time jobs, but only 15,500 full-time.  

• Half of October's new jobs (24,000) were in the construction sector; as the colder months set in, it is unlikely that this sector will remain a source of strength.

• Manufacturing continues to struggle, losing 7500 jobs in the month, which brings the loss over the past year to more than 25,000. 

• Fully 40,000 of the jobs created in October were in Ontario and British Columbia;  the remaining Provinces saw almost no change in employment in the month.

• Despite the rise in the headline employment number, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.0 percent. However, to the extent that this reflects an increase in the participation rate, it can be interpreted as a sign of improving worker sentiment. 

Take from all this what you will!  The headline number provides a wholly misleading impression, given the loss of full-time jobs and the uneven geographic distribution of new positions.  The most plausible interpretation of the data is that after the post-fire bounceback during Q3, the economy has continued to expand gradually in the final quarter of the year.  There's nothing here to change Bank of Canada policy.