Told you so

There's not much one can add to this, really.  Prior to the Brexit referendum, just about every economist in the UK and elsewhere warned that a vote to leave the EU would very likely push the economy into recession. The Leave side dismissed this as fear-mongering, and the unlovely Michael Gove snickered that "people have had enough of experts", which is quite a statement coming from an Oxford man.

Now, as the linked article indicates, those "experts" are starting to quantify the damage, and it's not a pretty picture. Growth forecasts for the near-term are being slashed: GDP was expected to expand 2.7 percent next year, but post-referendum that has been cut to a mere 0.4 percent. The report even suggests that the UK may have to adjust to a "permanent reduction in the size of the economy". The Bank of England is all but certain to cut interest rates in August to limit the damage, but it seems unlikely that monetary policy can have much effect here. Rates are already extremely low, and both business and consumer confidence has taken a severe hit.  Business confidence is reported to be lower than at the height of the financial crisis.

The only real doubt surrounds the duration of the post-referendum slowdown. A "short, sharp" setback is one thing, but with new Chancellor Philip Hammond airily musing that it may be six years before the actual Brexit takes place, there's a real risk that the UK is facing a much more prolonged slowdown, lasting right up to the next election.  That's due in 2019, unless Theresa May decides to seek an earlier mandate.  By that time, popular sentiment towards the EU may well have changed dramatically -- but if the electorate then wants to stop the Brexit process, who do they vote for?  There will always be a large element of the Tory party that is viscerally anti-EU, and the Labour Party seems to be falling apart. It's a fine old mess, and it can surely only get worse.  

ADDENDUM, 19 July: Today the IMF has released an updated global growth forecast. It has only revised its overall GDP outlook marginally lower in response to the Brexit vote, but warns of more serious consequences for the UK economy, as well as for the European financial system.