Apologies for another post about Brexit, but as the damage mounts up, I feel I'm helping to vindicate the huge number of economists who warned that a vote to leave would cause immense damage to the UK economy. They were branded as fear-mongers by the Leave campaign, but it's already becoming clear that they were right.
Today's evidence comes in the form of the Markit PMI (purchasing managers index), which is usually a good leading indicator of how the economy is going to perform. Post-referendum the PMI has plunged to the lowest level seen since the worst days of the financial crisis. Markit's chief economist says it's possible this is just a one-month drop, but that doesn't seem to be the way to bet. Business and consumer confidence surveys are pointing in the same direction, and retailers are reporting diminished footfall in the weeks since the vote.
The most ridiculous comment comes from Andrew Lilico, a Brexit supporter who believes that the long-term impact on the UK economy will be positive. Well, maybe, but it's his comment on today's data that are worthy of remark. He claims he always expected a short-term reaction, and those who voted to leave "expected a short-term slowdown too".
Er, no. I was in the UK a week before the vote. I spoke to a lot of Brexit supporters in person and heard a lot more on TV and radio. The one thing they were all counting on in the event of a Leave vote was that immigrants would start packing their bags and quitting Britain the very next day. That was never going to happen, but that thinly-veiled promise/threat was what won the day for the Leave campaign. Well, that and decrying as fear-mongering all of the economists' warnings that are now swiftly coming true.
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