Populism rules UK

Unless one of the Lib/Con coalition partners kicks the props out from under their uneasy alliance, a general election in the UK should still be more that two years away.  However, the campaigning seems already to be getting under way, at least on the Tory side, and it's not looking pretty.  David Cameron and his pals seem set to try to appeal to some of the more distasteful elements of the British psyche.

The first sign of a Tory tilt towards populism may have been the surprise announcement of tougher-than-expected new banking regulations at the start of February. Having dithered on the issue for years, the Government announced that the "ringfence" designed to separate retail from investment banking in each institution would be "electrified" -- banks that declined to go along would be broken up.  The success of the City of London has always been envied across the rest of the UK, so this sort of thing plays well in the shires, even if it only serves to hasten the demise of London as a key global financial centre.

Since then the announcements have come thick and fast:

* PM Cameron delivered a major speech on the UK's future in Europe, demanding renegotiation of the relationship with the EU and promising an in/out referendum on UK membership, providing his party wins an overall majority in the next election.

* On a similarly xenophobic note, the Government is making a big fuss about trying to keep out economic migrants from Bulgaria and Romania, who will have the right under EU law to enter the UK without restriction at the end of this year.  One strategy: ads in the media in Sofia and Bucharest telling people how bad the British climate is -- something that tends not to get mentioned in the UK's normal tourism promotions. The government's tone toward immigrants already in the UK is also turning much harder.

* David Cameron is suddenly taking a much harder line on tax avoidance by multinational companies, though it's not clear that his Government can actually do very much about it, apart from "name and shame".

It all sounds as if policy is going to be made in the editorial suites of the Daily Mail and The Sun newspapers, rather than on Whitehall.  It's an impression that's only strengthened by a quite bizarre media frenzy that's erupted this week, over a speech made a few weeks back by the novelist Hilary Mantel.  Ms Mantel's theme was the way royal women have been viewed through the ages, a subject she has some knowledge of in view of the extensive research she carried out before writing her novels on Henry VIII (Wolf Hall, Bring up the bodies) and the French Revolution (A place of greater safety).  She ventured a few comments on the way the media are treating Kate Middleton, the Duchess of Cambridge, in effect stating that she is being objectified by the media and calling for a more generous and rounded approach (I'm paraphrasing here).

Needless to say, no reporters actually attended this erudite presentation, but when it appeared on the internet  a couple of weeks later, the jackals of the press pounced.  You can read the unpleasant details in this excellent piece from The Guardian.  Unsurprisingly, the sulphurous Daily Mail and the tawdry Sun have been in the forefront of the attacks on Ms Mantel.  That would be bad enough, but there's worse: David Cameron, taking part in a trade mission in India, saw fit to take time out of his schedule in order to jump into the fray with his own criticisms of the author.

Cameron's tone was more measured that that of the press, but it's clear that any politician siding with the Mail and the Sun against the greatest living writer in the English language (you can disagree if you wish, but you'll be wrong) is not chasing the intellectual vote.  Cameron is no doubt aware of the cautionary anecdote told about Adlai Stevenson, a somewhat cerebral US politician of the mid-20th century.  After one of Stevenson's speeches (he was contesting the Presidency with Dwight W. Eisenhower), an admirer rushed up to him and said breathlessly, "that was wonderful!  You'll have the vote of every thinking American".   "That's no use", replied Stevenson.  "I need a majority".

So does David Cameron, and recent events suggest he's not going to be choosy about how he gets it.