Time to talk about the economy?

With less than two weeks to go,  Canada's Federal Election campaign has seen remarkably little focus on the economy. Climate change has been a big issue (takeaway: Canadians want something done but they want somebody else to pay), as has the character of the leaders. Jagmeet Singh of the NDP has performed best, and got off one of the best lines in the TV debate when he said that Andrew Scheer and Justin Trudeau were basically arguing over who would be the worst choice for Canada.

There has been some talk about budget deficits, but attempts to portray Justin Trudeau as a profligate spendthrift have had little impact, largely because none of the main parties is promising a swift return to fiscal balance. But about GDP growth, employment, inflation?  Next to nothing, unless you count vague pledges from just about every party to make life "more affordable" for the middle classes.

That may be about to change, because this morning Statistics Canada released an unexpectedly strong employment report for September.  This is the last major piece of economic data before polling day rolls around on the 21st, and given the strength in the numbers, it would be surprising if the Trudeau Liberals don't pounce on this report to boost their case for re-election -- something on the lines of "you really don't want to mess this up, do you?", but maybe more subtly expressed.

The economy added 55,000 jobs in September, compared to a consensus expectation of less than 10,000.  Almost all the jobs were full-time.  The unemployment rate fell to 5.5 percent, just a tick above its all-time low.  Over the past twelve months, the economy has added 456,000 jobs and wages have risen 2.6 percent, above the rate of inflation. The participation rate for the core working age cohort has reached an all-time high of 74.7 percent. 

Not everything about the report was positive, as all of the month's gains represented either public sector jobs or self-employment.  Moreover, fully 41,000 of the new positions were created in the Province of Ontario, though this is unlikely to upset Liberal election strategists, given the pivotal role of that Province, and particularly the Toronto region, in deciding the results of national elections.

Opinion polls show a very close race between the Liberals and the Conservatives, with each having about a third of decided voters across the country.  The NDP and Green Party each have about 10 percent support and the separatist Bloc Quebecois is having a moment in its home province. A hung Parliament and a minority government look like the most probable outcomes, unless Trudeau and his team can use today's data to persuade more of the electorate to vote their pocketbooks.