No recession is no news

At 8:30 EDT this morning, Statistics Canada released data for real GDP for November and, on a preliminary basis, December 2023. Half an hour or so later, I checked the website of the major news outlets to see how they were covering the release.  They pretty much weren't covering it at all, which could only mean one thing: the recession that the media have been baying for since about mid-2022 failed to show up yet again.

If we look at the actual data release, we find that real GDP grew 0.2 percent in the month of November, higher than the preliminary estimate of 0.1 percent,  after remaining virtually unchanged for the three preceding months.  The growth was broad-based, led by the goods-producing sectors, which posted a 0.6 percent month-on-month gain. Thirteen of the twenty sub-sectors tracked by StatsCan saw higher output in the month.  Moreover, StatsCan's preliminary estimate for December suggests that the economy accelerated further in the month, with real GDP posting a 0.3 percent increase.

These monthly numbers are calculated on a slightly different basis from the quarterly data and are of course subject to revision.  Even so, StatsCan feels able to offer an estimate for how the quarterly number for Q4, not due until February 28, is likely to turn out.  It estimates that real GDP grew 0.3 percent in the quarter, which annualizes to around 1.2-1.3 percent.  That would more than offset the 1.1 percent annualized decline reported for Q3. 

Even if these numbers are revised, it is clear that a recession has, yet again, failed to materialize -- indeed, the November and December data would appear to show that the economy is actually starting to move away from such an outcome. A check back with the major news outlets a few hours after the data were released showed they were at least deigning to report the figures, though not in large type and not without adding an editorial comment or two. The Toronto Star's story, for example, is headlined "The Canadian economy grew slightly in November".  In fact, the 0.2 percent gain reported for November annualizes to about 2.5 percent, in line with the economy's long-term potential, and December's 0.3 percent annualizes to a rate close to 4 percent, considerably above potential.  But that wouldn't be newsworthy, would it?