Ontario's latest fiscal update was released on Valentine's Day, and went almost unnoticed amid everything portentous that's going on in Canada and around the world. That's a pity, because it looks as though the Province's dramatic fiscal improvement will be one of the key planks in the election platform for Doug Ford's Tories come the June election.
The Province's Finance Minister, my old Bay Street oppo Peter Bethlenfalvy, announced that the projected deficit for the 2021-2022 fiscal year (April-March) is now C$ 13.1 billion, $ 8.4 billion lower than the figure projected just three months ago in the mid-year update. The improved outlook is almost entirely the result of a $ 8 billion estimated improvement in Provincial revenues, itself a direct result of a better-than-expected rebound in the Provincial economy.
Bethlenfalvy is required to table a budget by March 31, and will no doubt delay until as close as possible to that date so as to maximize the positive impact on the Tory election campaign. The impact of the omicron COVID variant is not entirely captured by this week's data, but it is hard to imagine that Bethlenfalvy hasn't thought of that, and may indeed have kept some good news in reserve so as to announce an even better fiscal outcome on budget day.
So the main elements of the Tory election platform are falling into place. Fiscal improvement? Check! Removal of almost all health restrictions? Check!! Abolition of fees for annual renewal of auto license plates? Check!!! Doug Ford is a charmless boor, but it would be brave to bet against his winning another term, given the lackluster opposition he faces.
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