Just what I wanted!

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called a Federal election, to be held on September 20.  So much for the concept of fixed election dates, passed into law by PM Stephen Harper more than a decade ago but largely ignored by everyone (including Harper) ever since. An election is not actually due until October 2023, but Trudeau thinks he spies an opportunity to win back the majority that he lost in the 2019 election. 

Trudeau's suggestion that Canadians "deserve a say" is in effect his first untruth of the election campaign. Opinion polls suggest Canadians don't want an election right now, with a fourth wave of the COVID pandemic starting to spread across the country. The main national opposition parties -- the Conservatives and the left-leaning New Democrats (NDP), both running behind Trudeau's Liberals in the opinion polls -- don't want an election either, which is precisely why Trudeau is so keen to have one as soon as possible. 

The parties' full platforms for the election are not available yet, but many of the key elements for the three main parties can already be discerned.

The Liberals will largely run on their record, especially in regard to COVID. After what was perceived as a slow start, Canada's vaccination program has been one of the most effective in the world. Although the first wave of COVID back in 2020 took a severe toll on the economy, Canada is much closer to regaining its pre-pandemic GDP than the US is; Trudeau will claim that this is thanks to the myriad support schemes his Government introduced and will assure Canadians that the fiscal cost of these schemes can be afforded as the economy returns to normal growth.

If the Liberals have a weakness, it may be on foreign policy,  not normally much of an issue in Canadian politics.  Relations with China are positively frosty, thanks to Canada's failure to duck a US request to detain a Huawei executive, Meng Wangzhou, as she passed through Vancouver airport two years ago. Extradition proceedings are still underway, on charges that are frankly a textbook example of US legal over-reach. In retaliation, China has held two Canadian citizens on dubious spying charges and has sentenced a third to death on drug smuggling charges.  Trudeau has been unable to break this logjam, and appeals for help from Washington have gone unheeded, just one example of Canada's lack of influence there, even with President Biden in the Oval Office. 

The Conservatives' opening pitch will be that they are not Justin Trudeau, which will be sufficient to win them plenty of seats in some parts of the country, particularly Western Canada. Party leader Erin O'Toole's platform will focus heavily on the need to return to balanced budgets as soon as possible. His finance expert (and presumptive Finance Minister, if the Tories win the election), Pierre Poilievre, is borderline rabid on fiscal matters, an approach that may not play well in the heat of a seven-week election campaign.

The Conservatives' main weakness may turn out to be their lack of cohesion as a party. Non-Canadians might be surprised to learn how much US-style religious fundamentalism and pro-gun sentiment there is in Canada, especially in the West.  Those folks lean heavily Tory. There is also an evident east-west divide on energy policy, with the producing Provinces in the west (Alberta, Saskatchewan) keen to maximize revenues from their fossil fuel resource, while the rest of the country is turning ever so gradually greener.  It will be tough for O'Toole to thread this needle.

The NDP has been whining that an election is not needed because it has been supporting Trudeau in making the minority government work, which is a peculiar way to launch an election fight, to say the least. The only substantive pledge the party has made so far has been the introduction of a national pharmacare plan. This would be a good thing, but will lay the party open to accusations of spendthriftery from both of the other parties.  NDP leader Jagmeet Singh seems like a nice guy -- and his wife has just revealed an amazingly opportune pregnancy -- but the NDP has never formed a government at the national level and is highly unlikely to get close this time. 

It's possible that Trudeau will pay a price for inflicting an election on Canadians in the final weeks of summer, and in this year of all years, but for now this looks like the Liberals' election to lose. As for me, well, as I was doing a few errands this morning a catchy little reggae number came on the radio:  Conscious Party, by Ziggy Marley. Wonder if they'll be running a candidate in Niagara?