Waiting for the call

It seems likely that a Federal election will be called in Canada very soon. Justin Trudeau's Liberal government does not have a majority in the House of Commons and the PM would, understandably, like to change that. Were it not for the pandemic, an election would probably have taken place several months ago -- the last election was in October 2019, and minority governments rarely last much more than a year. Now, however, Trudeau must surely see that conditions are looking very auspicious for his party. Here are some of the main factors.

COVID:  this is the key factor in a couple of ways. 

• First, it would have been grossly irresponsible to start an election while the pandemic was at its height. However, the infection rate in Canada has fallen sharply over the past two months, so the health risk posed by holding a vote is very much less than it was. That said, health professionals are still warning of a possible resurgence in infections, possibly accompanied by a worse-than-usual flu season, once the colder weather returns. An election soon after Labour Day would almost certainly take place against a background of very low COVID; wait until closer to Thanksgiving and the picture might be rather worse.

• Second, the successful vaccine rollout will be one of the Liberals' key campaign issues. Going back a few months, the Government was facing harsh criticism for failing to procure enough vaccines and for adopting a single-dose strategy (not initially recommended by the pharma companies) to spread the doses around. Now we find Canada is near the top of the international list for first doses (close to 80 percent of adults) and moving up fast on second doses (well over 50 percent). The public has a short memory, however, so the Liberals would probably be well advised to get the election underway while this success is still top of mind.    

The economy: Canada's economy took a bad beating during the first wave of the pandemic but has come through the second and third waves with much less damage. Real GDP will probably surpass its pre-pandemic high in the next two or three months. Although unemployment is still elevated, there should be strong job gains in the next few months. This is a good scenario for a government seeking re-election, especially if you believe (as you should) Bill Clinton's old adage that "it's the economy, stupid".  To delay the election into the Fall would be to risk the economy losing some momentum, particularly if there is a resurgence in the pandemic.

The opposition: it's hard to know where to start here, but suffice it to say that the parties that would be seeking to replace the Liberals are an unimpressive bunch.

• The Conservatives have contrived to select themselves another unattractive leader, Erin O'Toole. Their "front bench" consists mainly of faceless nonentities, with a few exceptions such as their attack dog finance critic, Pierre Poilievre. The party is widely perceived to have been captured by its right-wing elements, a group that bears more than a passing resemblance to the Trump GOP.

• The left-of-centre NDP is seen by many as nothing more than enablers for the Liberals, voting with the government on issues of confidence that could have triggered an early election. Its leader Jagmeet Singh is amiable but is unlikely to offer any real alternative to Trudeau.

• As for what we might call the single-issue parties, the Bloc Quebecois has recovered from a near-death experience a year or two ago, but still seems unlikely to take many seats from the Liberals in that Province. The Green Party is quite simply in chaos, with party insiders, seemingly goaded on by the party's former leader, turning on the newly leader they themselves chose not many months ago. 

To be clear, I don't relish the prospect of one of Canada's endless election campaigns and I don't in any way endorse the present government.  But if you put all of these factors together you can easily see why Trudeau will probably call an election as soon as he decently can.