This year's model

For most of the past year Canadians have been watching the haphazard efforts to control the COVID pandemic south of the border with horror and pity. Sad to say, the time for any sort of Schadenfreude in Canada is long past.  In our most populous Provinces, we are now doing just about as badly as our American neighbours in controlling the spread of the disease, and early indications are that we are going to do a whole lot worse in getting our population vaccinated.

Let's take a look at the situation in my home Province, Ontario. Premier Doug Ford has tried from the outset to strike a balance between keeping COVID under control and keeping the economy moving. Any suggestion that you will never have a strong economy as long as the disease is raging has been largely ignored. Inevitably this led to the economy being reopened too quickly after the first lockdown back in the Spring, with the dreaded "second wave" really picking up momentum as winter set in. 

The Province has claimed all along to be "following the science" regarding the pandemic, and has paid particular attention to the modelling work done by the so-called Science Table. Last week Premier Ford announced that the latest modelling data would "make you fall off your chair", though in typical style he let another weekend go by before either revealing the data or announcing any further restrictions.

On Tuesday (12th) Ford announced a full lockdown in the Province (although in truth there are plenty of exceptions), backing up his decision with the actual modelling data. I have to admit that this is the first time I have looked at this modelling in detail. The data deck is impressive (link here to both English and French versions) but it's quite apparent that most of the modelling consists of simply projecting the current trends for infections, hospitalizations and so on into the future in a linear fashion. 

This naturally produces some scary-looking numbers -- the Science Table noted that "on the worst days" recently the case count has grown by 7 percent. You only need the "rule of 72" to know that extrapolating that growth rate gives you a doubling of cases every ten days. If you project that rate forward for a full month (i.e. three 10-day doublings), you get a daily case rate of 20,000-plus in mid-February, compared to the 3,000 or so we have been averaging recently. These are the numbers that Premier Ford promised would make Ontarians fall off their chairs.

I don't intend to disparage the Science Panel here, but this kind of modelling can produce some very weird results. One member of the Panel commented that a faster growth rate would potentially lead to a 40,000 per day case rate, as indeed it would. Then again, it happens that the number of new cases reported this week has actually been slightly below the levels seen a week ago. Is that a new trend? Maybe, maybe not, but simply projecting it forward would lead to a much different outcome from the one the Province is using to justify its decisions.   

As for vaccinations, the picture is confusing and not at all encouraging. The Federal government has ordered a staggering number of vaccines, enough to inoculate every one in Canada eight times over, but actual deliveries are painfully slow. In true Canadian fashion, there is massive finger-pointing between the Feds and the Provinces over whose fault this is. My guess is the Feds have screwed up, ordering humungous quantities of jabs in an effort to conceal the fact that their dilatoriness has left Canada well down the list to receive actual shipments.

How is this working on the ground?  Here in Niagara there was rejoicing at the news that the regional health body would  receive its first 11,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine this week. Commentators pointed out that that would allow all care-home residents and workers to get their first shot by Friday. Except...that paltry initial shipment will in fact be arriving over the next few weeks, not all at once.

Let's "model" (i.e. extrapolate) that, shall we? Assume that the vaccines will arrive over a three-week period, and let's round the number for simplicity to 4,000 per week. The population of Niagara Region is about 450,000, so at this rate it would take about 112 weeks, or more than two years, just to give everyone a single shot!  The Trudeau Government is promising that everyone who wants a vaccine shot will get one by September: to put it mildly, that looks like a heck of a stretch.

What's more, it's not just rural backwaters like mine that are seeing these problems. The huge University Health Network in Toronto actually ran out of vaccine over the weekend, with many front-line workers still not treated. And in a sign of the lack of urgency at all levels of government, Toronto Mayor John Tory proudly announced the planned opening of a dedicated vaccine clinic at the Toronto Convention Centre. When it opens next week it will be able to administer.....250 doses per day! Meanwhile Los Angeles is opening a vaccine clinic at Dodger Stadium that will be able to offer up to 15,000 shots per day and the UK is preparing to offer shots through supermarkets. Now THAT should make Ontarians fall off their chairs.