Tuesday, 11 August 2020

This could get interesting

We learn via CBC that former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has taken on a side hustle. After his spell on Threadneedle Street ended early this year, Carney was appointed as a UN special envoy on climate change and climate finance. Apparently that's not a full-time gig, because he has been providing advice to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on how Canada should respond to the COVID-19 crisis.

Carney surely knows his way around a crisis.  He was at the helm of the Bank of Canada during the global financial meltdown, and more recently led the Bank of England's response to the Brexit vote and the subsequent chaotic negotiations -- indeed, he agreed to extend his term in London in order to ensure an experienced hand on the tiller on Brexit day itself,  at the start of this year. The fact that Carney served in both Ottawa and London under Conservative governments may be part of his appeal to Trudeau right now, possibly helping to deflect potential criticisms that the Government's pandemic response is politically driven. 

That said, Carney's re-emergence in Ottawa gives us plenty of opportunities for speculation.  For example, how does new Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem feel about it?  The two men seemingly worked well together a decade ago, when Macklem was Carney's Deputy, but Carney is, to put it mildly, not bashful about expressing his views. How will Macklem respond if Carney takes to second-guessing the Bank's, or offering his opinions from the sidelines?

Then there's Finance Minister Bill Morneau to consider. Morneau has been caught up in the ongoing WE Charity scandal, which basically involves suspiciously tight connections and flows of money between a well-connected charity foundation and senior Liberal politicians, including both Morneau and Trudeau himself. Trudeau's Teflon shield seems to be deflecting much of the blame, but Morneau may not be so lucky, especially if Trudeau decides that someone has to go under the bus for appearances' sake.

Carney has long been reported as having political ambitions. Firing Morneau and installing Carney in what is effectively the number two job in the Government would be a bold and risky move, especially as Carney has no seat in Parliament.  Then again, there's a vacant seat in the Toronto area, so a hastily-arranged by-election to get Carney into the House of Commons can't be ruled out.

Lastly, Carney's acceptance of the UN special envoy role reflects a genuine interest in the climate change issue. He regularly raised the hackles of backbench Tories in London by speaking out on the issue. There are reports that Trudeau is looking to use the need to pilot the economy out of the pandemic shutdowns to launch some radical changes, which would undoubtedly focus heavily on "green" issues.  "Green Czar" Mark Carney?  Stranger things have happened. 

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