It took Greta Thunberg about a nanosecond to denounce the EU's hard-won 750 billion Euro COVID rescue package, on the grounds that it "fails to tackle climate change". To which one might respond that it was never intended to do so, but of course, for Ms Thunberg, everything must be about climate change. That being the case, she needs to prepare for a whole lot of disappointment, because COVID-19 is likely to set efforts to combat climate change back for a long time to come.
In the short term, COVID is making a big difference to the way people get around. Sure, plane travel has collapsed, which is a good thing for the climate. On the ground, however, it's a different story: the private car is making a big comeback at the expense of public transit. The UK publishes weekly data comparing the usage of various modes of transportation to year-ago levels. For the week ended July 20, journeys by train or subway stood at about 20 percent of prior-year levels. That's stunningly low until you realise that a few weeks ago, that figure stood at less than 10 percent.
What about car journeys? Those had recovered to about 85 percent of prior year levels and were moving up fast. As long as people perceive the car as the safer way to get around, that trend is likely to continue: experts are warning it could take years to rebuild confidence in public transportation. Similar trends are surely to be seen in many other countries, and as long as they persist, they bode ill for the climate.
If we now look at the longer term, there are two factors in play that stand to inhibit efforts to return climate change to the top of the policy agenda. The first is the macroeconomic impact of the virus itself: it's making every country poorer, while imposing massive costs. Countries facing falling GDP, stubbornly high unemployment and soaring healthcare costs (including the staggering bill for acquiring and administering a vaccine when one is found) are unlikely to put much money aside for climate change efforts. Senator Joe Biden might want to keep this in mind as he looks to place a "green New Deal" at the centre of his platform for November's election.
The second factor is sheer fatigue. Ms Thunberg and others have regularly suggested that the all-out international effort to combat COVID can be seen as a dry run for a similar mobilization to avert climate disaster. That seems downright Panglossian -- nobody is enjoying this, and the idea that as soon as COVID is beaten, people will be revved up to undertake a longer and more arduous effort to curb climate change is little short of ludicrous.
Most disturbing of all for Ms Thunberg, it seems to be people of her own age or just a bit older who are chafing the most under the restrictions imposed to fight COVID. People who can't stay away from the beach or from illegal raves for even a few weeks seem unlikely to sign up to Ms Thunberg's multi-year crusade.
COVID-19 has not diminished the importance of doing something about climate change, but it has drastically reduced the likelihood that voters and taxpayers will see that as a priority any time soon.
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