It's a start

One of the most widely (and incorrectly) quoted US economic numbers since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the Department of Labor's jobless claims data.  It's been widely quoted because it's a weekly series released with very little time-lag.  It's been incorrectly quoted because many journalists have been summing the weekly figures for initial jobless claims (i.e. people claiming for the first time in each  reporting week) and presenting that number as an estimate of total job losses.  The Department also publishes a series for continuing claims that gives a much better estimate of the cumulative impact of the virus, albeit with a one-week lag. It's part of the same press release -- you don't even have to go and search for it!

Data for the week ended May 23 were published this morning, and provide clear evidence that the gradual reopening of the economy is starting to have an impact. Initial claims for the week were 2,123,000, down more than 300,000 from the previous week's level. Initial claims have in fact been declining week by week since hitting a staggering 6 million at the end of March. 

But check out this report from CNN: its very first sentence states that   "More than 40 million Americans have filed for first-time unemployment benefits since the coronavirus pandemic forced the US economy to shut down in March."  That's arithmetically accurate, but it would surely be better to quote the figure for "insured unemployment", which relates to the week ended May 16.  That figure stood at 21,052,000, a decline of almost 3.9 million from the previous week. The "insured unemployment rate" fell to 14.5 percent from 17.1 percent in the same week. 

Those are still awful numbers, but they seem to suggest that the worst of the job losses may now be in the past.  Although the official May non-farm payrolls data, due for publication on June 5, are likely to be terrible, the fall in claims throughout May should translate into better numbers for June -- but as always, all such bets are off if the pandemic gears up for a second wave.