Coronavirus and the climate

Not surprisingly, the virtual shutdown of much of the global economy is having a dramatic effect on air pollution, as this video, one of many to be found on the internet, illustrates.  It remains to be seen how lasting this improvement will be, particularly if the world economy bounces back smartly.  Still, it seems almost inevitable that the air travel sector will never recover to its pre-pandemic level, so those bluer skies you're seeing may be with us for years to come.

Climate scientists are warning that any pause in global warming resulting from the pandemic will be a respite rather than a reversal.  Here, for example, is Thomas Friedman in the NYT, arguing that with the pandemic and global warming alike, "Mother Nature always wins", with the only difference being that pandemics inevitably fade, whereas global warming is inexorable if we stay on our current course.

And here is George Monbiot at The Guardian, arguing that COVID-19 is a wake-up call regarding humanity's mistreatment of Mother Nature.  In Monbiot's opinion, The planet has multiple morbidities, some of which will make this coronavirus look, by comparison, easy to treat.  Channeling his inner Thomas Malthus, who is never far from the surface, George's principal concern is how humanity will feed itself as global warming wreaks havoc with agriculture. 

Commentators such as Friedman and Monbiot, and many others beside, appear to hope that the lessons learned from dealing with COVID-19 will readily transfer over into the fight against climate change. Seriously? We may have learned that shutting everything down and living like hermits reduces pollution, but we could surely have figured that out from first principles, without having to run the actual experiment.

People are starting to chafe quite badly under the enforced lockdowns, even though in most countries these have barely been in place for a month. The idea that anyone who has lived through this crisis will be up for a multi-year or even multi-decade rerun in order to set the climate right strikes me as naive in the extreme. Coronavirus may have cleared the air in New Delhi and Nairobi and Los Angeles for now, but it's very far from certain that it will ultimately change human behaviour in a climate-positive way.