Scorecard

OK, I'm back, after an excellent Caribbean cruise to celebrate one of those nasty birthdays with a "0" at the end. Let's get back into the swing of things by reviewing the predictions I made in my final post before my "Hiatus".

• Trump vs Thunberg at Davos.  Prediction? Short-term winner: Donald; long-term winner: Greta. Trump and his minions saw fit to bad-mouth Ms Thunberg, even suggesting she should take an economics course before speaking out, but there's little doubt that in the long run, she's on the side of the angels. One possible complication: we are nearing the start of a new solar cycle that some experts have warned could trigger a mini ice age, which would no doubt overjoy the deniers.  However, this article seems to refute that argument quite comprehensively   

• Bank of Canada decision day (January 22). Prediction? Unch.  Correct!  However, the growing impact of the coronavirus outbreak on global economic activity could push the Bank into easing mode very soon -- although, given the linkages among major economies nowadays, it's not at all certain that lower rates would provide much benefit.

• Brexit Day (January 31). Prediction? Short term impact: limited; long-term impact: severe but politically deniable. This is a bit more complicated than the other "predictions" so I will deal with it in a separate post, mainly to explain what I mean by "politically deniable". .

• Trump impeachment. Prediction?  Short term winner: Trump. Long term loser: rule of law.  Trump is certainly the winner in the short term, and is proving remarkably but unsurprisingly graceless and vindictive in his moment of supposed triumph. As for the rule of law,  Alan Dershowitz's jaw-dropping argument that anything the President does in the belief that it's for the good of the country is ipso facto not impeachable is profoundly damaging, though it might not hold up in court.

• Super Bowl LIV (February 2). Prediction? KC, unless Mahomes is hurt. Correct, but only just. I watched the game on a giant screen beside the pool on the ship.  This was great, although since the broadcaster was ESPN Caribbean, all of the ad slots were filled with promos for upcoming cricket and European soccer games, to the bemusement of much of the audience. As far as the game itself goes, it seemed as though Mahomes spent three quarters playing like Garoppolo and Garoppolo spent three quarters playing like Mahomes. Fortunately for my prediction, they both reverted to their true selves in the final quarter.  Early prediction for next year: KC again, or Baltimore.