Clusterfexit

The notion that history repeats itself first as tragedy, then as farce, originated with Karl Marx. This certainly applies to Brexit, but while the tragic part was very short -- the initial referendum back in 2016 -- the farcical part has now dragged on for more than three years, and only seems to be getting worse.

First the man who triggered the whole fiasco, David Cameron, promptly left the scene in the wake of the referendum.  Then the leading candidates to replace him, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, knifed each other in the back, allowing EU remainer Theresa May to take on the Prime Ministership and attempt to negotiate a deal with the EU.  Then May rashly decided to call an early general election in which she managed to squander the Tories' majority in Parliament, leaving her government dependent on a shaky alliance with the Northern Ireland DUP,  a throwback to earlier sectarian times. Then, after repeated failures, May managed to obtain a draft departure deal with the EU, only to have it rejected no fewer than three times by the House of Commons. At that point May resigned, eventually to be replaced by Boris Johnson.

Under Johnson's "leadership" events have only become more bizarre.  He pledged to leave the EU by October 31 "do or die" -- i.e., deal or no deal.  As regards getting a deal, however, his initial position was that he wouldn't even meet with the EU unless it first agreed to his key demand, abandonment of the so-called "backstop" for the Irish border. He subsequently agreed to meet with key leaders like Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, Chancellor Merkel and President Macron, with the main achievement being a picture showing Johnson with a foot on a coffee table at the Elysee Palace.

With the October 31 deadline drawing closer and no sign of progress, Johnson abruptly decided to force the issue.  He obtained the Queen's consent to prorogue (suspend) Parliament in early September, aiming to recall it again just two weeks before the Brexit deadline. This was a blatant attempt to make it impossible for Parliament to prevent a no deal Brexit, and Parliament finally got its act together.  This week, the House of Commons seized control of the agenda and passed a bill aimed at preventing a no-deal departure on October 31. Johnson then announced his intention to call an election for October 15, but the Commons denied him the two-thirds majority needed to do so.  More than twenty of Johnson's own MPs voted against him and were promptly ousted from the party.

It looks like a stalemate.  Prorogation is still set to happen next week.  The Commons' bill preventing no-deal Brexit is being debated in the House of Lords;  with fears of filibuster and amendments from pro-Brexit Tory peers seemingly lifted, it could receive Royal Assent within days.  Taking a leaf from Theresa May's book, Tory grandee and arch Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg plans to re-introduce the call for an early election on Monday, the eve of prorogation day.

There is no good way out of this.  Even another referendum would be risky: with passions so heightened on all sides, the odds of civil disorder must be alarmingly high.  An election is inevitable sooner rather than later, but probably won't settle anything.  The Tories are deeply divided and afraid of being outflanked on the right by Nigel Farage's Brexit Party. Labour, led by the EU-skeptical Jeremy Corbyn (who is, whisper the word, an actual socialist), is not much more united.  A hung Parliament looks to be the likeliest outcome.

The ultimate irony is that whether the UK leaves the EU with a deal or without one, the issues that have driven the astounding events of the past three years will remain unresolved. The shape of the future economic relationship between the UK and its biggest trading partner will still have to be determined.  Marx's view of history may have had only two stages, but if we ever reach the end of the farcical part, a whole new stage will begin.  First tragedy, then farce, then exhaustion?