Engineering failure

Canada's SNC-Lavalin Affair has been rumbling on for several weeks, with no end in sight.  For a fairly obscure legal/bureaucratic matter it has created a lot of heat domestically and even attracted a lot of international attention.  This article on CBC News is a comprehensive (and regularly updated) summary of the issues.

In essence, the whole affair centres on whether the Trudeau government attempted to interfere in judicial due process for political reasons.  SNC-Lavalin, an engineering company,  is facing legal action relating to bribery and other offences committed several years ago -- the age of the accusations can be judged from the fact that the son of the late Colonel Gaddafi is a bit player.

Canada recently introduced the concept of a "deferred prosecution agreement", already used in the US and UK, which allows firms facing such accusations to avoid trial in exchange for paying a large fine and promising not to offend again. A DPA would seem a reasonable option for dealing with SNC-Lavalin, if only because all of the people actually involved in the alleged offenses were fired long ago. However, Attorney General and Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould ("JWR") decided instead to proceed with a prosecution. In early February the Toronto Globe and Mail published a story suggesting that JWR had come under severe pressure from Trudeau and his senior officials to revisit that decision.

Since then the story has never been off the front pages, and Canadians have seen a succession of Parliamentary hearings involving JWR and some of Trudeau's most senior bureaucrats. JWR and another Cabinet Minister, Jane Philpott, have resigned, as has Trudeau's Chief of Staff, Gerry Butts.  Butts was almost certainly set up as a sacrificial lamb in the hope of ending the crisis, but that was unsuccessful. The most recent development has been a very vague statement of contrition, far short of an outright apology, from Trudeau himself.

One reason the story is fascinating is that it touches on so many of the fault-lines in Canadian politics and society, particularly in light of the never-ending virtue-signalling practised by Trudeau and his senior ministers.

First, there's the age-old question of Quebec.  SNC-Lavalin is a Montreal-based company. A large proportion of its 9000 employees live in la belle Province.  Those jobs would be at serious risk if the company lost in court, since that would automatically bar it from bidding on Federal government contracts for ten years. Many Canadians outside Quebec are quick to take offence at the least sign of that Province or its businesses receiving special treatment,  which is how the possibility of a DPA for SNC-Lavalin has been spun -- totally unfairly, it should be said. Polls show that fully 60 percent of Canadians want the company to face prosecution, but needless to say that number is far higher outside Quebec and far lower in that Province. 

Second, there's the relationship between the Canadian state and its Indigenous citizens.  JWR is of indigenous heritage on her father's side, a fact that she chose to stress by signing her resignation letter with her native name -- Puglaas, which means "woman born to noble parents".  In her parliamentary testimony she repeatedly noted that her background caused her to see things differently from her non-Indigenous colleagues.  This has led to speculation that quite apart from the SNC-Lavalin matter itself, she is dissatisfied with the progress the Trudeau government has made towards its loudly-proclaimed goal of reconciliation with Indigenous communities.

Third, there's the role of women in politics. When Trudeau, a self-proclaimed feminist, became Prime Minister he appointed a Cabinet with 50 percent female members "because it's 2015".  The resignations of JWR and Jane Philpott, and the language they used in communicating with Trudeau, suggest that not all of the newly-minted Cabinet Ministers feel they have been treated fairly.  It is being suggested that although Trudeau was anxious to take credit for bringing fresh faces and fresh perspectives to the Cabinet table, he still expects them to act as their older (i.e. whiter and male) predecessors would have acted.

If you're familiar with the term "intersectionality",  the lively public debate on SNC-Lavalin has brought us a rather provocative example.  Sheila Copps was Deputy Prime Minister back in the 1980s and was one of the most vigorous feminists in Canadian public life.  Asked to comment on JWR's decision to proceed with a prosecution, Ms Copps responded in distinctly waspish tones that she wondered if JWR would have made the same decision if it had been 9000 Indigenous Canadians that stood to lose their jobs, rather than 9000 Quebecers.  It's unlikely that these two will be exchanging birthday cards this year.

The timing of all this is excruciating for Trudeau, who faces a General Election in October.  Some political commentators have been recalling Harold Wilson's adage that "a week is a long time in politics", suggesting that the whole affair will be long forgotten by the time Canadians head to the polls. The opposition parties seem determined not to let that happen.  Most worrying for Trudeau must be the possibility that women voters will remain appalled at the way JWR has been treated; without strong support from women, Trudeau is fated to be a one-term Prime Minister.

UPDATE March 9: this piece lays out the case against SNC-Lavalin in blistering detail. (Warning: scary Gaddafi picture!)