Less than six months after taking office, Doug Ford's Ontario provincial government has been going through a rough patch. A string of allegations about sexual harassment, cover-ups and other misbehaviour have forced Ford into an early "recalibration" of his Cabinet.
Ford and his team were probably hoping that this week's Fall Economic Outlook would get the focus back onto its policy agenda. Good luck with that -- just a couple of days ago, Finance Minister Vic Fedeli became the latest to be accused of sexual misconduct* -- and by none other than Patrick Brown, who was ousted as leader of the PC Party, and ultimately replaced by Ford, earlier this year. Brown has a tell-all book coming out this week and has been all over the media plugging it.
The statement that Fedeli delivered today is usually characterized as a "mini-budget", but on this occasion there is so little of substance that the term "micro-budget" seems more apt. To begin at the bottom line, Fedeli now says that this year's deficit will be C$14.5 billion. This is $1 billion lower than Fedeli claimed when he first took office, but still almost twice as large as the deficit the former Liberal government had proposed.
Why the lower number now? Fedeli claims that the government has already reduced spending by $3.2 billion, but this simply reflects its well-advertised intention not to proceed with some of the previous government's pie-in-the-sky election promises. Actual spending cuts by the new government have, to date, been nugatory. The "spending cuts" have been offset by a $2.7 billion fall in revenues, most of it accounted for by the government's ideologically-driven move to abolish the cap-and-trade carbon pricing scheme it inherited.
As far as actual policy changes are concerned, the government is taking steps to remove anyone earning less than $30,000 per year from the provincial income tax rolls. This is a creditable move, although of course many such low income earners will still be liable for Federal income taxes, and today's move is further diluted by the fact that the minimum wage increase set for January 2019 has already been cancelled. At the other end of the tax scale, a planned increase for the highest income-earners has been scrapped.
In terms of non-revenue measures, a small number of "watchdog" positions in the public service will be eliminated in the name of cost saving. Rental controls on new-build homes will be eliminated. Plans for a third French-language university in the province have been cancelled. And in another step to portray the government as a friend to the bibulous, opening hours at provincially-owned liquor stores (which is all of them) will be extended to 11 pm.
Fedeli stated soon after taking office that the task of restoring the budget to balance would be a lengthy one. Based on the pace he has set so far, that looks like the safest of bets.
* Fedeli strenuously denies the charge -- and just for clarity, the accusation is not that he misbehaved with Patrick Brown!
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