I have no idea how the NAFTA renegotiations will go when they resume after the Labour Day weekend. Best guess is that Canada will wind up joining the agreement that the US and Mexico have negotiated, with the highly-protected dairy industry thrown at least part-way under the bus as the price of getting a deal.
There's a theme running through some of the Canadian media commentary this weekend, to the effect that Trump needs Canada to join the revised deal in order to demonstrate his negotiating prowess ahead of the mid-term elections. All that this shows is that almost half way into Trump's mandate, a lot of pundits are no closer to grasping the relationship between Trump and his "base".
If Canada joins the deal, Trump will crow about a "victory" that puts an end to years of Canadian exploitation of US goodwill under the existing NAFTA. If Canada stays out, he will proclaim that he has stood up to an unfair trading partner and denied it any future preferential access to the US market. His base will be happy either way -- that's why Trump has been so clear in his Twitter tirades this weekend that he sees no need to compromise.
It's to be hoped that Canadian negotiators understand this before they head back to the table in DC on Wednesday. They've botched this negotiation comprehensively since day one, but maybe realism and common sense will dawn before it's too late.
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