Serial screw-ups

The mix of smug self-righteousness and callow inexperience that has characterized Justin Trudeau's government from the outset is starting to cause real problems.  It's unusual in Canadian Federal politics for a government to serve only one term and then get thrown out again, but the way things are going for Justin and his pals right now, you wouldn't bet on them winning next year's election.

We could look at all manner of domestic issues here:  the failure to forge any kind of consensus on energy pipelines;  the insouciant response to the rising number of irregular refugee border crossings, especially in Quebec; Trudeau's backtracking on his loudly-proclaimed zero tolerance policy when he himself suddenly faced a sexual harassment accusation.  But let's confine ourselves to foreign policy,  because that's where the action seems to be right now.

Donald Trump's performance at the G7 summit in Quebec a couple of months ago seems to have been a bravura exhibition of oafishness, but at the end of the day, an agreed statement was crafted.  However, Air Force One was barely wheels-up when Trudeau saw fit to stand up at a press conference and brag about how he had made it clear to Trump that Canada would not back down in the face of tariff threats.  That's a viewpoint that has plenty of support at home, but it was not a smart thing to say right then, particularly given Trump's famously thin skin.

Trump promptly tweeted that Trudeau's backstabbing (as he saw it) would cost Canadians "a lot of money", and developments over the past few weeks have clearly been heading in that direction.  The threat of auto tariffs began to ramp up sharply almost as soon as the summit was over, and may not be averted despite intensive lobbying by US automakers.  More broadly, Canada has found itself excluded from NAFTA renegotiations currently underway between the US and Mexico, with those two countries increasingly confident of a deal by the end of this month.  Canada may well find itself in a "take it or leave it" position if a bilateral deal is reached.

It is reasonable to conclude that Canada's exclusion is a reflection of Trump's anger over the post-G7 debacle, but there may be another factor at play.  Word is that the US NAFTA negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, cordially dislikes his Canadian opposite number, Chrystia Freeland.  Ms Freeland had no diplomatic experience before jumping in at the deep end as Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister, and her ability to offend people does not appear to end with Lighthizer.

Late last week Freeland's Ministry took to Twitter to berate Saudi Arabia over its treatment of dissidents:

Canada is gravely concerned about additional arrests of civil society and women’s rights activists in #SaudiArabia, including Samar Badawi. We urge the Saudi authorities to immediately release them and all other peaceful #humanrights activists. 

The Saudis saw this as an unforgivable interference in their internal affairs and promptly vowed to cut off trade and investment dealings, throwing out the Canadian Ambassador to Riyadh for good measure.  This in turn triggered a remarkable piece of virtue signalling from Ms Freeland's spokesperson:

"Canada will always stand up for the protection of human rights, very much including women's rights, and freedom of expression around the world. Our government will never hesitate to promote these values and believes that this dialogue is critical to international diplomacy."

It's more than forty years since my brief stint in the UK Diplomatic Corps, and of course we didn't have Twitter in those days.  Still, I'm pretty sure that unsolicited and accusatory public statements  can never be considered as either dialogue or diplomacy.  You don't send highly-paid and qualified representatives to each other's capitals and then conduct your diplomacy using the modern day equivalent of a megaphone.

The Saudis are giving as good (or as bad) as they get in terms of rhetoric, per this tweet from the Foreign Ministry:

#SaudiArabia is gravely concerned about the Continues Canadian occupying of the land of Natives who lived and owned their lands hundreds of years. We urge the Canadian authorities to immediately gather its own people and go back to Europe where they belong.

In the meantime, Saudi students are being withdrawn from Canadian universities, the Saudi government is starting to sell its holdings of Canadian assets and so on.  It ought to be a tempest in a teacup, but given the self-righteousness of Ms Freeland (and no doubt also of her boss, the Prime Minister), it's unlikely that Canada will back down from its position, and the Saudis see no reason to do so either.  Trudeau and Freeland may think they are speaking up for "Canadian values" here, but a quick perusal of the reader comments on this article would seem to suggest otherwise.