Wednesday 22 November 2017

UK economy: officially a disaster

Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond is generally seen as the only functioning adult in Theresa May's Cabinet, so needless to say he is widely reviled by the hardline Brexit fanatics.  Today he tabled a budget that underscores just how badly the Brexit fiasco is already hurting the UK economy, with no improvement in sight for at least the next several years.

This summary from The Guardian captures all the main points and includes some useful glosses from the paper's political editor. (Kudos to her, by the way, for using the obscure legal term "resile"!)  A couple of things particularly stand out:

  • UK GDP growth is already the lowest among developed countries, and, painfully for Brexit supporters, below the rate being achieved by the EU.  Hammond has now had to lower the official forecast not just for this year (to 1.5 percent from 2.0 percent), but for each of the next five years -- that is, well beyond the date of Brexit itself. The budget offers no specific explanation for the lower projections, but maybe one isn't really needed.
  • Government borrowing for the current year will be lower than originally forecast.  It is projected to continue to fall gradually over the five-year forecast horizon, though not as rapidly as Hammond forecast last year.  Remember when George Osborne embarked on the austerity trail back in 2011?  The deficit was supposed to be gone by now.  Instead, half a decade of supposed fiscal responsibility has exerted a serious drag on the economy, with no end in sight. 

It's a depressing picture. Let's give the last word to the satirical website, The Daily Mash:  "Economic growth is bollocks and we don't need it, say Brexiteers". Or was that from The Daily Telegraph?

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