- Full-time employment rose by 35,000 in the month, offset by a 24,000 decline in part-time employment. Taking these two numbers together, there was a healthy 0.6 percent rise in hours worked in the month, for a year-over-year increase of 1.9 percent.
- A total of 387,000 jobs has been created in the past twelve months, the highest figure in a decade. The overwhelming majority of these jobs -- 354,000 -- have been full-time positions.
- The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to a nine-year low of 6.3 percent. This partly reflected a small decline in labour force participation, although the participation rate for the core age group (i.e. excluding the youngest and oldest) was unchanged.
- Average hourly wages remain tame, with 1.3 percent year-on-year growth recorded in each of the past three months, barely keeping up with inflation.
The persistent strength in the labour force data over the past year or so has taken some of the focus away from the volatility in the numbers, which used to make it difficult to perceive the underlying state of the jobs market. For what it's worth, the data on self-employment still seem somewhat erratic, albeit less so than in the past, but for the moment there can be no dispute that the employment situation in Canada is the strongest it has been since the onset of the financial crisis.
There can be little doubt that Q2 GDP data, due for release on August 31, will be strong, and today's data indicate that the strength has persisted into the current quarter. This means that the economy is likely to reach effective full capacity by the end of this year, in line with the Bank of Canada's forecast. Although the persistently low growth in wages will give Governor Poloz and his colleagues something to think about, it is very likely that the Bank will implement another 25 basis point rate increase at its October Governing Council meeting, when it will also release its updated economic outlook.
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