Anyone remember David Cameron's mantra at the height of the financial crisis? "We're all in this together", he liked to say. Now this same Great Unifier, through his spineless decision to allow a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, has divided his country right down the middle. The consequences of this will reverberate for years, not just in the UK but across Europe and around the world.
Ahead of last year's election, Cameron was concerned about losing votes at the right fringes of his party to the anti-EU, anti-immigrant UK Independence Party, UKIP. Rather than stand up to UKIP and to the knuckle-dragging xenophobes in his own party, Cameron came up with the wizard wheeze of promising an in/out referendum on EU membership. It worked at the time -- Cameron's Tories won a majority -- but now the reckoning must be paid.
Truth to tell, the referendum was never really about Brexit as such -- it was a battle for the future of the Tory Party itself. The clearest evidence of this is that before the formal campaigning began in February, Cameron had been openly musing about the possibility of leaving the EU, whereas Boris Johnson, who became the figurehead of the Leave campaign, wrote a lengthy article in the press arguing that the UK would be better off to remain part of the bloc. No high principles were at stake here -- just a raw lust for power.
So, what's next?
In terms of the political fallout, Cameron has already impaled himself on his sword, announcing he will quit by October. His Chancellor, George Osborne, has been at his side in the Remain campaign, so any chance he may have had of succeeding Cameron has presumably vanished. It looks like a coronation for the clownish but ruthless Boris Johnson, though the other prominent figure in the Leave campaign, the preternaturally dull Michael Gove, may also think he has a claim on the job.
Either way, this will mark a sharp swerve to the right for British politics, which is almost certainly not what the majority of Leave voters (especially the Labour supporters) were seeking when they cast their ballots yesterday. There have even been suggestions that the eminence grise of the Leave campaign, UKIP leader Nigel Farage -- a loathsome piss-artist -- may be elevated to the peerage.
Then there's Scotland. While in the UK earlier this month, I watched a televised debate on Brexit in which by far the most impressive performer was Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister. The Scots are much more pro-European than the English -- think of the Auld Alliance -- and voted Remain in the referendum. Ms Sturgeon has already indicated that another independence referendum is likely, in the hope of allowing Scotland to remain in the EU.
As for the economic impact of the vote, the damage will not take long to emerge. Brits pitching up on the Costa Brava this weekend will be shocked to find how much less their money is worth than it was just two days ago, as Sterling has collapsed to levels not seen since the mid-1980s.
More seriously, business investment is likely to fall sharply and for a prolonged period of time. Markets hate uncertainty above all else, and the referendum result has created a situation that is quite literally without precedent. Why would any company thinking of investing in Europe choose the UK now, when the future of the country's tariff-free access to European markets has been cast into doubt? Bank of England Governor Mark Carney (wish you were back in Ottawa, Mark??) says the Bank stands ready to provide liquidity to keep markets functioning, and a rate cut is quite possible. But will any of that help? The cost and availability of money is hardly the issue right now.
The Leave campaign have argued that they will be able to negotiate deals with the EU to maintain Britain's access to European markets. Maybe they will, but as the UK has to give two years' notice of its intention to leave, and as that notice will probably not be given until Cameron's successor is in place, a prolonged period of uncertainty and business paralysis is guaranteed.
And that's the best case. In truth, it is very likely that the EU will drive a hard bargain with the UK, partly out of hurt feelings but also because it will need to send a clear signal to any other countries pondering an exit vote that the process will be painful in the extreme. A particularly tough line may be come from Paris, where politicians are no doubt thinking that General de Gaulle was right all along -- perfidious Albion should never have been allowed into the club.
It's hard to think of a more stupid, self-destructive decision that has ever been taken by democratic vote. If it was only the Brits that had to live with the impact of their folly, that might be fair enough, but many people with no real connection to the UK are likely to get hurt as the consequences unfold in the coming months and years. For David Cameron, the man who set this debacle in motion for crass political purposes, the judgment of history will surely be very harsh indeed.
* Tr: The Brits have voted to leave the EU
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