"Events, my dear boy, events"

Justin Trudeau's Government has had a good first six months. The PM has larged it up on the world stage, attracting fawning press coverage; the plan to admit Syrian refugees has fallen a bit behind schedule, but retains broad public support; the resort to deficit financing in an effort to jumpstart the economy has met with only muted criticism; and much of the baleful legacy of the Harper Tories has been unwound. Trudeau and his party appear to command even higher voter support than they did on election day last October.

Now, things are set to get harder, as the Alberta wildfires put the Government to its first tough test.  Back in the 1960s British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan was asked by a journalist if there was anything that might derail his government.  His response: "Events, my dear boy, events". It's the unexpected and unplanned-for that puts any government to the test, and the fires near Fort McMurray certainly fall into that category.

So far, the Government seems to be reacting well, expressing sympathy and pledging financial and other assistance, while leaving most of the front-line work to the Alberta Provincial Government.  However, as the fires start to recede, or at least move away from the city itself, there will be some tough questions to be answered.  For example:

• Everyone is pledging to rebuild Fort McMurray, as you'd expect at this stage.  However, this is a community that lives and dies with the oil sands industry.  Given Canada's belated conversion to climate change activism, what is the future for that industry, and what in turn does that mean for the future size and shape of Fort McMurray? 

• How much should the rest of Canada contribute to the rebuilding effort?  Alberta has never been particularly good at squirelling away part of the proceeds of oil sales to provide for the future.  The so-called Heritage Fund has never been more than a fraction of the size of, for example, Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, which has around US$ 900 billion in assets.  Famously, Albertans' prayer whenever oil prices fall has been "Please God, send us another oil boom.  We promise we won't p*ss it away this time".  Once the sympathy factor wears off, how much will Trudeau be able to persuade the rest of Canada to pony up to help out? 

• This being Canada, anything Trudeau does for Alberta will inevitably lead other parts of the country to demand similar largesse. One obvious example: Quebec's Bombardier Inc, which has been holding out the begging bowl ever since the new government took office. Trudeau's team has reportedly been taking a tough stance in negotiations. Will that be politically sustainable if Federal monies start pouring into Fort McMurray?

No doubt there are worse crises to come as the G overnment's term rolls along for the next four years.  However, this crisis is the first time that this relatively inexperienced set of Ministers has been forced to take big decisions on the fly. It will tell us a lot about how they might cope if and when something really testing comes along.