For once, we have a positive surprise in Canadian economic data: GDP grew at a 0.8 percent annualized rate in the final quarter of last year. That's only one-third as fast as in the preceding quarter, but it handily beats the Bay Street analysts' consensus, which foresaw no growth at all for the quarter.
For 2015 as a whole, the economy posted a growth rate of just 1.2 percent, significantly below the average pace seen over the past half-decade, and well short of the growth rate posted by Canada's largest trading partner, the United States. Given the well-publicized travails in the resource sector, however, it's something of an achievement that the economy saw any growth at all.
In his recent get-the-bad-news-out-of-the-way economic statement, Finance Minister Bill Morneau dialed back the Government's growth forecast for this year, predicting a sluggish pace in line with last year's performance. Might this be too pessimistic? The freefall in energy prices seems to have abated, while the lower exchange rate has now been in place for long enough that we can perhaps look for it to have a real impact on non-oil exports as the year progresses. Moreover, Morneau's budget later this month is supposed to include new spending on infrastructure, with a promised emphasis on "spade-ready" projects. This could give growth a modest boost by the second half of the calendar year. Can it be that the political tyro Morneau is setting the bar deliberately low, so as to be able to take the credit if things do start to go well? I'm just asking.
Lastly, an observation that will be familiar to any long-term readers of this blog. Today's figures were good news, so naturally none of the major media saw any reason to give the story any prominence. If GDP had fallen by 0.8 percent in Q4, that would of course have triggered a rash of large-font headlines.
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