The news that Canada's economy had been in a technical recession back in the first half of the year (well, from January to May) was fodder for some large-font headlines and much hand-wringing in the media. Today we get news that GDP grew in July for a second consecutive month -- and it's not much of a story at all. In fact, the rabidly anti-Harper Toronto Star can't even find room for it on the home page of its website -- you have to click on the separate "Business" section, well down the page, to find it.
Most private sector analysts are revising their growth forecasts for Q3 and for the rest of 2015 sharply higher, and it seems likely that the Bank of Canada will be doing the same when it updates its published forecast in October. This should mean that there is no prospect of any further monetary easing by the Bank, which should reduce the downside for the exchange rate, even if the US Federal Reserve starts raising rates in the next little while.
This is undoubtedly good news for Stephen Harper's Tories, who look likely to emerge as the largest single party in the October 19 election, even though about two-thirds of the electorate (including your humble scribe) heartily wish them gone. Harper and his cadaverous Finance Minister, Joe Oliver, have been widely scorned for downplaying the recession, but it looks as if they were right. There's every possibility that revisions to the data -- which can take several years to complete -- will eventually show that it never actually happened.
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