OK, so there may be a huge dollop of wishful thinking here, but it's hard not to conclude that the carefully-crafted plan that was supposed to carry Stephen Harper to a fourth term as Canada's Prime Minister later this year is falling apart. Let's look at the evidence.
Exhibit One is, of course, the economy. Harper and his crew have long claimed that their astute economic stewardship allowed Canada to weather the financial crisis and its aftermath much better than just about any other country. That was all well and good as long as energy prices remained high, but now that the oil price is falling, Harper's decision to go all-in on energy is looking about as smart as Pete Carroll's play-calling at the Super Bowl.
Making things worse, the Government decided to declare victory over the budget deficit last year and announced plans for a series of targeted (at the middle class) tax cuts to take effect just before the election. With the fall in oil prices, it's all but inevitable that the budget will in fact be in deficit again this year and next. Hapless Finance Minister Joe Oliver has delayed his annual budget until April while he figures out what to do, but it seems likely that there will be another round of spending cuts in the hope of staunching the embarrassing flow of red ink. Dollars to Timbits those spending cuts will fall on poorer Canadians, who wouldn't be voting Tory anyway. However, the mere need to take such steps will provide plenty of ammunition for the opposition parties as the vote nears.
In the meantime, Harper's team is falling apart at an alarming rate. The afore-mentioned Joe Oliver last year replaced the only truly popular and likable member of Cabinet, Jim Flaherty, who resigned abruptly and sadly passed away soon afterwards. Oliver is (a) a newcomer to politics and (b) 73 years old, and his ineptitude as the economic story has unravelled suggests he won't be a big plus for Harper come voting day.
A few weeks ago Harper had to fire his Veterans Affairs Minister, Julian Fantino, after a series of egregious foul-ups. And today, Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird has unexpectedly resigned to "pursue other interests". Baird, a man with the physique and charm of an aging linebacker, has faithfully parroted Harper's increasingly deranged foreign policy: the empty bellicosity towards Vladimir Putin, the slavish support of Israel, the open-ended but never fully explained commitment to the battle against ISIS. Harper has clearly been hoping that a noisy presence on the world stage might replace economic stewardship as his key electoral calling card. The fact that his wingman in this endeavour has just jumped ship will make that a much more difficult sell.
And then there are the scandals. Most notably, the criminal proceedings against one of Harper's hand-picked Senate appointees, Mike Duffy, will begin in the spring. Duffy is accused of massive expenses fraud. Harper has already defenestrated his chief of staff in hopes of deflecting blame in the matter, but it's difficult to see how some of the mud won't stick to the PM when the case comes before a judge.
Is Harper sunk? Far from it. He still controls the election date; although the "fixed" date for the vote is October 18, Harper can override that. A spring election would allow the Tories to go to the voters before the Duffy trial gets under way. In addition, Harper can hope that hostile voters will split their ballots between the opposition parties, allowing the Tories to hold onto a plurality of seats, if not a majority. This seems possible: NDP leader Tom Mulcair is cerebral and a good parliamentarian, but not someone voters warm to; Liberal Justin Trudeau has name recognition but lacks gravitas. It promises to be an interesting year.
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