What with Greece being the "cradle of democracy" and all that, I suppose we shouldn't be surprised that the results of Sunday's elections appeared so soon after the polls closed. By mid-evening, we not only knew the final result with a high degree of accuracy, we could also discern one of the most disturbing and portentous features of the voting: a clear split between the preferences of younger and older voters. Those above the age of 54 -- in effect, the baby boomers -- largely voted for pro-bailout parties such as New Democracy and the venerable PASOK; a clear majority of younger voters chose the anti-austerity parties, notably Syriza.
Is this just a case of older and wiser heads resigning themselves to a return of tough times, while the young delude themselves that Greece can restore prosperity by defying its creditors? If only that were so. The truth is much less simple and palatable than that. The generational divide in the Greek vote is something that we are very likely to see replicated all across Europe as the era of austerity rolls on.
Greece joined the EU as long ago as 1983, a time when the baby boomers there and elsewhere were just starting to move into more senior positions in politics and business. Greece's public debt/GDP ratio at the time was near 20%. Three decades of self-indulgence by the baby boomers -- retirement at 50 for workers in "hazardous" professions, unfunded public sector pensions, 14 months pay for 12 months work, an extravagantly unaffordable Olympic Games, and so on -- have multiplied that ratio eightfold. In the meantime, the economy has become increasingly "hollowed out" and dependent on one sector: tourism.
Now the years of Greece living wildly beyond its means are over, regardless of this weekend's election results. The baby boomers, on whose watch all the debts were run up, voted to try to keep the creditors happy for a bit longer, but the young people who will actually have to pay back the debt seemingly beg to differ, preferring to take their chances with the untried (and slightly wacky) folks at Syriza. It's hard to be surprised: how would you feel if you were told you had to cut back on your own meals in order to pay your granny's whisky bills?
This is not just a Greek phenomenon. Spain has a youth unemployment rate nigh on 50%: how do you suppose an austerity referendum would turn out there? Ditto Portugal. In Ireland, the response to austerity on the part of the young is a tried-and-tested one: they're leaving the country in growing numbers. All across the developed world* -- the US and Canada not excepted -- the blank checks written by the baby boomers are starting to be presented for payment, and the young people who are expected to honour them are getting restless. Add in the demographic element -- Western countries have not been having children at anything like the "replacement rate" -- and you have a recipe for a slow-burning and intractable crisis. Have a nice day.
* We do things better in the UK, though, right? Well, read this cautionary tale.
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