It's good news week

Another gloriously warm and sunny day here today, and for once, we have economic data to match.

* The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reports that UK vehicle production in March was 14.8% higher than a year ago, bringing the increase for Q1 as a whole to 13%. Aided by a weak exchange rate and strong foreign demand, vehicle production has risen in each of the past eight months. Closures at Toyota, Honda and Nissan plants in the next few weeks, as a result of parts shortages, will crimp the Q2 data, but the underlying picture is strong.

* Retail sales rose 0.2% in March, to be 1.3% above March 2011 levels in volume terms. Remarkably, BBC News turned to the British Retail Consortium for comment on this, even though the official data comprehensively refuted the BRC's own bogus survey, which had shown a sharp fall in sales. The BRC's Richard Dodds allowed as he was "surprised" by the data, and maintained that the underlying trend was weak. Well it isn't, Richard -- just look at the data again, will you? (The only "surprise" with BRC data is the rare occasion when it's within loudhailer range of the truth). Warm weather, a late Easter and the Royal Wedding (got your Waity Katey Platey yet?) should ensure another positive outcome this month.

* The ONS announced today that public sector borrowing for the fiscal year ended 5 April was £141.1 billion, below the forecast of £145.9 billion and 10% lower than in the previous fiscal year. All that lovely VAT rolling in from strong retail sales this month should get the new fiscal year off to a good start.

So, a double-dip recession? You can never say never, but you can confidently say "not right now". Happy Easter!