Coalition deal: who wins?

Details of the Con-Dem coalition agreement are now emerging. It looks at first blush as if the LibDems got themselves a pretty good deal -- and, in my judgement, so did the country. Here's a summary from the BBC website, with a comment or two from your obedient scribe:

* There will be a "significant acceleration" of efforts to reduce the budget deficit - including £6bn of spending reductions this year. An emergency Budget will take place within 50 days. A win for the Tories. Although the recovery is still in its early stages, it's tempting to think that the confidence-boosting effects of this will more than offset any mild deflationary impact. Just hope they don't raise VAT before I take delivery of my new car!

* Plans for five-year, fixed-term parliaments, meaning the next election would not take place until May 2015. Proposals for a "wholly or mainly elected" House of Lords on the basis of proportional representation will be brought forward. Win for the LibDems, but no real sacrifice for the Tories. It's not clear what the implications of a fixed-term Parliament will be if the coalition collapses -- another area in which we have no constitutional precedents.

* The Lib Dems have agreed to drop plans for a "mansion tax" on properties costing more than £2m, while the Conservatives have agreed to shelve their plans to raise the inheritance tax threshold. A trade-off; as ever, I am happy to see the Tory obsession with protecting inheritances knocked back.

* Instead there will be a "substantial increase" in the personal tax allowance from April 2011, with further steps to raise it to £10,000 as a "longer term objective". This was a LibDem election pledge, but as it is one of the few popular things that the new Government will be able to do, the Tories will be happy to put their names to it.

* The Lib Dem policy of taxing planes, rather than passengers, has been adopted and there is a commitment to a new tax or levy on banks as well as a pledge of "robust action to tackle unacceptable bonuses in the financial services sector". No strong opinion on the first of these, and both parties had been keen to look tough on bankers during the campaign, so this can't have been very difficult to agree.

* The new administration will scrap part of Labour's planned rise in National Insurance. Tory win, though it may turn out to be a very small "part" that gets scrapped!

* A pledge to have a referendum on any further transfer of powers to the EU and a commitment from the Lib Dems not to adopt the euro for the lifetime of the next Parliament. Tory win, though given recent events in Europe, the LibDems can hardly have been chafing at the bit to join the Euro anyway.

* The Lib Dems have agreed to Tory proposals for a cap on non-EU migration. Semi-unfortunate Tory win; I'm liberal on immigration, but the country is obviously becoming less so. It won't keep out all the East Europeans that Mrs Duffy (remember her?) was worried about, though.

* The Conservatives will recognise marriage in the tax system, but LibDems will abstain in Commons vote. No agreement on this, obviously. Hard to see it as a short-term priority anyway.

* The Lib Dems will drop opposition to a replacement for Britain's Trident nuclear missiles but the programme will be scrutinised for value for money. VERY unfortunate Tory win. This total waste of money would have been first on my list of things to chop.

* There will be a referendum on moving to the Alternative Vote system and enhanced "pupil premium" for deprived children as Lib Dems demanded. LibDem wins, sort of: AV isn't really proportional representation.

A couple of other items have emerged from other sources. The third runway at Heathrow has been scrapped (hallelujah!) but the FSA, which the Tories wanted to abolish, is to remain in existence, according to the FT. It will be interesting to see whether Mervyn King offers any thoughts on this.

Overall, I quite like it. Put it this way, had any of the parties run on this platform last week, they'd certainly have got my vote.