Here comes the "neverendum"

It's not al-Megrahi, all the time at the Scottish Parliament. The SNP government has announced its legislative programme for the coming session, and it includes a bill to hold a referendum on Scottish independence in 2010. First Minister Alex Salmond said it was time for the voice of the people of Scotland to be heard.

Since the three opposition parties at Holyrood outnumber the SNP, the referendum bill may not pass. However, it would be politically risky for the Tories, SNP and Labour to oppose it -- "what are they so afraid of?", as Salmond would undoubtedly ask. If there is a referendum, opinion polls suggest it will fail to deliver a majority for outright independence. Back in the days of the Quebec referenda in Canada, a Quebec comedian said that what Quebecers wanted was "a free, independent Quebec in a strong, united Canada". It was a joke, but it captured the ambivalent feelings of a majority of Quebecers. I suspect a large proportion of the Scottish electorate feels the same way.

There's a good possibility that the SNP will try to boost support by asking a vague and unthreatening question, though the Quebec precedent argues against that. The question in the first Quebec referendum (in the 1980s) offered something called "sovereignty-association" rather than outright independence, but this was heavily defeated. The question in the second referendum was much more straightforward -- and Quebecers came within one percentage point of voting to leave Canada.

So, the result of the vote is unpredictable, but here's one fearless forecast, again based on what happened in Quebec. If "the voice of the people of Scotland" favours independence by even the smallest of margins, Alex Salmond et al will regard it as "history's irrevocable verdict" or something such and will push for early independence talks. If the vote goes against them, they'll immediately start planning to ask the question again.