Bank of Canada rate cut: dangerous, or merely pointless?

I think if I'd been at home this past two weeks, slaving over a hot keyboard in a cool basement, rather than being down south, nursing a cool beer by a warm pool, that I'd probably have posted to the blog about ten times.  The ECB starting quantitative easing....the Bank of England governor musing about low taxes paid by tech companies....the "historic blizzard" in the US northeast....US-Cuba talks....Target pulling out of Canada,  and so on.  And then there was the Bank of Canada....

After the Bank's monthly board meeting in mid-January, moon-faced Governor Stephen Poloz shocked just about everyone by announcing a 25 basis point reduction in the Bank's reference rate, bringing it to a new low of 0.75%.  Poloz cited the risks to the Canadian economy posed by low oil prices, and revealed that the Bank's forecast for GDP growth in 2015 had been lowered to 2.1% from 2.4% previously.

It's hard to know where to start with this. Although there's no question that low oil prices are bad news for Alberta, and to a lesser extent Saskatchewan and Newfoundland/Labrador, they're the best possible news for the rest of the country. Layoffs and cancelled investments are already under way in the producing provinces, but you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone in Ontario or Quebec or Manitoba who isn't entirely delighted by the fall in fuel costs. The US, itself a huge energy producer these days, is expecting the net effect of lower oil prices to be very positive for the economy there, thanks to the boost it provides for consumers, as well as for sectors of the productive economy that are large energy users.

It's legitimate to wonder whether the recent turn of events in the energy market is so out of line with past experience that the Bank of Canada's models are simply not capturing it correctly, and are underestimating the beneficial impact on household consumption in particular. But even if you accept that the models are correct, how is a 25 basis point rate cut supposed to help?  Even before the rate announcement, the Canadian dollar had fallen by more than 20 percent against its US counterpart, as a direct result of the collapse in oil prices. Since the Bank's move, it's down another five percent.  If this huge depreciation isn't enough to give a boost to the non-oil economy, be it manufacturing or tourism, what possible reason can there be to hope that reducing already rock-bottom interest rates will be of any help?

The answer, God save us all, can only be that the Bank of Canada is worried about the housing sector.  That's right, the same housing sector that the Bank itself admits may already be overvalued by as much as 30 percent, and which Deutsche Bank researchers recently asserted might be overvalued by twice as much as that. Why does the Bank think it advisable to stoke that particular bonfire?

What makes all of this particularly bizarre is that the Federal government's fiscal policy is about to resume pushing in the opposite direction. As I've noted here in the past, the Tories became so over-excited about the possibility of a fiscal surplus that they went ahead and announced a series of tax cuts before the money was even in the bank.  Now, thanks to the oil price rout, that money isn't there, so the budget will be in deficit again in 2015, despite all of the Tories' bragging about fiscal rectitude.  And so, Finance Minister Joe Oliver has delayed his budget announcement until April, when it's generally expected that he will announce a new round of spending cuts, which will directly undermine the economic growth that Governor Poloz is so desperate to keep on track.

In truth, what we see here is the past half-decade of inept policymaking -- and not just in Canada --  in microcosm.  Ideologically driven and economically illiterate deficit cutting, which the central bank has no choice but to offset with unprecedented levels of monetary stimulus which, it becomes more evident by the day, they have no idea how to get out of.  Indeed, many Canadian forecasters, not one of whom had any inkling about this month's rate move, are now starting to suggest that the Bank of Canada may well cut rates again. Well, I suppose if the hole you've dug for yourself is this deep, a few feet more won't make much difference, right?

Canada's economy: nothing to brag about

Considering the ghastly events in Paris this past week, it's no surprise that the economic data that were released in Canada and the US received less media coverage than usual.  However, the two countries' employment reports for December merit a bit of attention, since they show that the Canadian economy, at least in job creation terms, continues to underperform its southern neighbor to a startling degree.  This will have a significant impact on Canadian politics and economic policy during 2015.

First, a quick look at the data. The US ended its best year of job growth since 1999 by adding more than 200,000 jobs in December.  In contrast, Canada shed 4300 jobs in the month, the second consecutive monthly decline.  Some analysts took consolation from the fact that there were 54,000 full-time positions added in the month, with a more-than-offsetting decline in temporary employment, while others preferred to focus on the falling percentage of the population holding any kind of job.

The Harper government has for years planned to use its stewardship of the economy as its key election plank for the vote expected in October 2015. A couple of months ago it became so excited at the prospect of running a budget surplus this year that it announced a slew of new tax cuts timed to hit voters' bank accounts just before voting day. Largely as a result of plummeting oil prices, it now looks as though the Tories won't just be spending the surplus before it's actually been recorded: they'll be running the deficit back up, because there won't be any surplus to spend. In general, voters have little appreciation of matters fiscal, particularly if they're the recipients of a nice fat cheque, but it's certain that the opposition parties will try to turn the Tories' past bragging against them.

Looking at the broader economy, the employment data are deeply worrisome. Surprisingly, given the oil price collapse, it was Alberta that saw the best job gains in December.  However, first signs of layoffs in the oil patch are starting to emerge, and the province's job picture is likely to darken considerably as long as oil prices remain weak.  Alberta's provincial finances are already the worst in a generation.

Across the country in Ontario and Quebec, there are (or were) hopes that the fall in the exchange rate caused by lower oil prices could give a boost to the manufacturing sector. It's hard to hold out much hope for this.  The huge auto and steel plants in southern Ontario that have been shuttered over the past couple of decades are not going to reopen just because the Canadian dollar is weaker:  you only have to drive past one of these hulking relics to realise that the only question about their future is whether they fall down before anyone gets around to demolishing them.  With the Harper government bound and determined to conclude more free trade pacts, the long-term direction of Canadian manufacturing employment can only be downward.

This largely unexpected darkening in Canada's near-term economic outlook makes it risky for Harper to pin his re-election campaign on his party's economic management, though it has to be said that the incoherence of the opposition parties on such matters may help him ride out the storm.  However, it's no surprise that Harper is talking up his foreign policy credentials in order to provide an alternative story at election time. His main foreign policy moves -- saber-rattling over Ukraine, support for Israel that's so inflexible that it even embarrasses the government there -- are inconsistent with Canada's past dealings with the rest of the world, but play well with large ethnic groups within Canada that Harper is anxious to court.

And what about the Bank of Canada?  Governor Stephen Poloz always seems to be looking for reasons to keep policy ultra-accommodative, and the weak employment trend certainly plays into that bias. Falling retail gasoline prices may well drive headline inflation much lower in the first part of the year, giving the Bank further leeway to avoid tightening. And yet....Deutsche Bank released a report this past week warning that the Canadian housing market is overvalued by 63 percent.  That was just one of seven reasons why Deutsche believes that the Canadian economy is in "serious trouble" -- and all of those reasons come back in the end to the pernicious effects of ultra-low interest rates.  Unlike Stephen Harper, Poloz doesn't have to face the voters this year, but both men have plenty of reasons to keep their fingers and toes crossed that nothing goes badly awry in the next few months.

** Nothing to do with all this doom and gloom, of course, but I will be heading south for a couple of weeks for a respite from winter.  Posting should resume at the start of February.    

Justice and vengeance in the era of social media

As you read through this post, please keep one thing in mind. I think the fact that women are finding the courage to come forward about sexual violence and abuse is a good thing.  However, the way that social media are piling on to alleged perpetrators is deeply disturbing.

Have you ever heard of Ched Evans?  He is, or was, a professional soccer player in England. In 2012 he was convicted of rape and given a five-year sentence.  With the usual time off for good behaviour, he served half the sentence and was released in October 2014. It's worth noting that to this day, he denies the crime, and indeed the conviction is being investigated by the authorities, who fear it may be "unsafe".  Regardless of how that pans out, Evans was dealt with by the law and took the punishment that the law imposed.

Since his release, Evans has been trying to resume his playing career.  However, any club that has been linked with him, even tentatively, has been subjected to campaigns of vilification in the media and even threats of violence.  The most recent team contemplating hiring him, Oldham Athletic, has had to step back. For the social media lynch mob, it's not sufficient that he's done time for the crime; his entire life must be ruined. A separate set of internet trolls has been determinedly making the life of Evans's victim a misery, even though she has supposedly been granted anonymity.

Meanwhile, at the school of dentistry at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, there's a nasty little scandal over a sexist Facebook group run by some of the male students. Judging from the details that the media have seen fit to publish, the discussions among the group were nasty and tasteless, though arguably they're just Animal House-era sexism updated for the age of social media. There doesn't seem to be any prospect of criminal charges; being unpleasant and boorish is not a crime.  However, the university is under tremendous pressure to throw the book at the students involved.  A normal type of academic punishment, such as suspension for a term or a full year, is not seen as sufficient: there are demands that the names of the "guilty" be made public, so that regulatory boards across Canada can block them from ever practicing their profession.  Proportionate punishment is not enough: these people's entire lives must be laid waste.

Staying here in Canada, former CBC radio journalist Jian Ghomeshi appeared in court today for the latest stage of proceedings against him relating to allegations that he engaged in violent, non-consensual sex with a series of women. The number of charges against him has now risen to six, all dating back several years. Ghomeshi intends to plead not guilty, but regardless of how the legal process eventually pans out, he has lost his job and has zero chance of ever working in Canada again: the court of public opinion, stirred up both by the traditional media and the internet, has spoken.    

Three separate cases with three separate legal situations.  Ched Evans: convicted, sentence served.  Dalhousie students: nothing illegal has taken place. Jian Ghomeshi: awaiting trial, so still innocent in the eyes of the law.  But they're all the same in the eyes of the self-appointed moralists hiding behind the anonymity that the internet allows.  The heck with the justice system: there must be vengeance. There's nothing new about the lynch mob, of course, but its ability to wreak lasting harm on its chosen prey in the age of the internet is deeply disturbing to anyone who believes in justice.  

Reality check

I got my hair cut during the holidays.  It really made me think.

I frequent a haircutting place in St Catharines, a smallish city just down the road from us. It's a proudly blue-collar place with a strong trade union tradition, built on manufacturing.  Historically its foundations were family, faith, the factory and hockey, though not necessarily in that order.  Like other towns in this area, and like many similar regions across the northern tier of the United States, it's fallen on harder times in recent years.  My hairdresser's story is a microcosm of what happened to the place.

A couple of decades ago, she worked in a food processing plant operated by a major multinational company.  The union was strong, wages were good -- would still be good by today's standards, in fact -- and there was a full benefits package. There were thousands like her all across the city: at its peak, General Motors alone employed more than 15,000 workers in St Catharines, in two vast factories.

Then along came the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement. The soft fruit that the processing plant handled could still be grown here, but it could be grown cheaper further south, so the multinational shuttered the place and headed for a "right to work" jurisdiction south of the border.  That put the soft fruit farms out of business: if you try to buy table grapes in this area today, you'll find they come from Mexico or Chile.  My hairdresser and all her colleagues had to retrain, at their own expense, for less secure and much lower paying jobs, like cutting hair.

Today St Catharines has only one GM plant still operating, with a payroll of about 2,000. The principal source of new jobs in the area is call centres.  In the prosperous little town where I live, just about every person who serves me at a restaurant, or the grocery store, or the bank, drives the 15 or so kilometres from St Catharines every day.  Most of them seem to be holding down two jobs just to make ends meet.

The soft fruit farms have been replaced, either by new housing -- the land my own home is on was an orchard ten years ago -- or by vineyards.  Those provide employment, of course, but a lot of it is seasonal work and it's done by workers flown in from Jamaica or Mexico to work 12-hour days in the fields at minimum wage.

So I was wondering.  When the economists in the big bank towers in Toronto -- which you can see across the lake from St Catharines on a clear day -- publish reports on free trade, and talk about comparative advantage and such things, do they ever think of the human aspects of it?  When the politicians and bureaucrats up in Ottawa -- the most white-collar town in the world -- conjure up new free trade deals with Japan and Korea and China and anyone else who'll sign up, do they ever think about what it may mean for what's left of the economy in St Catharines and a host of other similar places?  I wonder if they think about that, because I know that when I was working in those bigger cities, I never did.